Expected value or average value with underdogs In this example the underdog is +1000 moneyline.
If I make a $10 bet on an underdog I think has a 10% chance of winning and the underdog wins I get $100. If the dog loses I get $0.
That is a 10 % chance to win $100 or a 90% to lose and get $0
The expected value of this bet is (10%x$100)+(90%x$0)=$10.
(the % to win is a key variable)
Now if I gave the same underdog a 50% chance to win the expected value looks like this.
That is a 50% chance to win $100 or a 50% to lose and get $0
If you think that dog has a 50% chance to win, your $10 has an expected value of $50.
This formula helps you think of a long term strategy when making bets.
Quantifying helps to make betting underdogs easier.
When I quantify a sports bet I pretend that this underdog will play the same game or fight 1,000 times. Even when the dog loses I can walk away knowing that the expected value was positive.
For instance If I put 1000 $10 bets (1000X$10=$10,000) at a +1000 moneyline ,
And I determined they had a 50% chance to win, (Which is saying win 500 out of 1000).
Making $100 each time. Win 500 bets paying $100 each is $50,000. (500x$100)=$50,000.
This is a great way to figure out the right price of an underdog whose true value is uncertain. Ideally you are looking for an underdog where you see something in bet that gives them just as much chance to win as to lose.